The south-west monsoon season has ended and now the retreating monsoon will bring rains in Sothern Peninsular. This retreating monsoon is know as North-East monsoon which last from October to December. As per the news reports IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) declared that South West Monsoon rainfall deficit was 5.6% so it was 94.4% of the total rainfall for the Long Period Average during June to September season. Also IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra acknowledged the failure in predicting the record 36 per cent shortfall in August rainfall. In the June 2023 issue of EST my article with title ‘South West Monsoon in India 2023’ was published at page number 25. In the last paragraph at page number 28 of the June 2023 issue of EST i had mentioned ‘Overall, the total rainfall will be around 95% of the Long Period Average, with uneven distribution as per time and space, during the entire South-West Monsoon season’. I had also made similar observations in my blog post “Forecasting Trends for South-West Monsoon for India” which was published on 24rd of May this year.
Forecasting Trends for South-West Monsoon 2023 for India
In year 2022 North East Monsoon gave 9% access rainfall activity at Southern Peninsular during October to December months.
In year 2022 during the months from October to December there was no major malefic planet ahead of the Sun in the transit which was one of the reasons for good rainfall activity. Saturn was in watery sign Capricorn and Jupiter was in another watery sign Pisces which gave lots of beneficial rainfall for the farmers resulting in good produce of paddy.
Now this year situation is altogether different as there has been lots of solar flare activity since early 2023 and during the months of October-November Mars, a natural malefic, will be ahead of the Sun in the transit which is a yoga for low-rainfall activity. The high Sun spot activity and the transit of malefic planet ahead of the Sun can create an obstacle in the North-East monsoon rainfall which is not a good news for the farmers of Sothern states particularly for Tamil Nadu.
Low Rainfall activity foreseen in October month
In the lunar month of Ashwin from 29th of September to 28th of October there will be 5 Saturdays. Also, the conjunction of two natural malefic planets Mars and Ketu at close degrees will also hold its sway. As per classical text Bhavishya Phala Bhaskar such situation can give less than normal rainfall activity and it will also bring rise in inflation so some extent.
Chart 1. Horoscope of Annular Solar Eclipse (Not Visible in India)
14 October 2023, 23:25 hours at Delhi
From an early October this year Mars will remain ahead of the Sun in transit. As per Bhavishya Phala Bhaskar this yoga is not conducive for rainfall. Apart from this Mars and Jupiter will be in opposition at 1/7 axis which is also a bad yoga for rainfall. So, there could be some delay in the North East monsoon arrival this year.
In the last week of October some good rainfall activity will start particularly around 26th and 27th when the Moon would be in Pisces a watery sign. Some parts of Telangana and Coastal Andhra Pradesh will get good rainfall then. The coastal area of Tamil Nadu will also receive some rainfall. Mars -Ketu conjunction can also bring an earthquake as these planets are in Kendra from a retrograde Jupiter, and they are also in trine from retrograde Saturn. This earthquake may come in the month of October around 14th of October in North or Western parts of Indian sub-continent and also in Iran.
Interestingly we had two earthquakes on 3rd of October in the afternoon which gave some tremors in Delhi-NCR region.
The center of these earthquakes was in Nepal with intensity of 6.4 at Richter Scale.
Chart 2. Horoscope of Partial Lunar Eclipse (visible in India)
29 October 2023, 01:53 hours at Delhi
On the 29th of October there will be Partial Lunar Eclipse which would be visible in India. This Partial Lunar Eclipse will bring much needed rainfall activity in the coastal areas of Southern Peninsular. Tamil Nadu and Kerala in particular will get good rainfall activity immediately after this Partial Lunar Eclipse. In the horoscope of Partial Lunar Eclipse, the Moon and Jupiter are in conjunction in Aries. They are in direct opposition with the Sun, Mercury and Mars in Libra. This yoga can bring a wind storm and a cyclone especially in the Bay of Bengal. This cyclone will bring good rainfall activity in the coastal areas of Orissa, West Bengal, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
At the time of Partial Lunar Eclipse of 29th of October the Moon is in watery Navamsha Cancer and the Sun is in watery Navamsha Capricorn which is good yoga for the rainfall. So, in the first fortnight of November some decent rainfall will come though October will give less than normal rainfall activity in Southern states.
Chart 3. Sun enters into Scorpio
17 November 2023, 01:18 hours at Delhi
As per Varahamihir’s Brihat Samhita’s ‘Sasya Jataka Adhyay’ chapter 39 the horoscope cast at the time of Sun’s entry into Scorpio gives indication about the summer crops or Rabi crops. In stanza number 2 of this chapter Varahamihir has mention the importance of having benefic planets in kendra (quadrant) from the Sun at the time of its entry into Scorpio sign. If benefic planets aspect the Sun, then also the summer crops bring good produce. Now, this year the Sun’s entry into Scorpio chart indicates deficient rainfall and troubles for the farmers. Mars is in degree conjunction with the Sun and another natural malefic Saturn aspect this combination from its 4th house. Although Moon is in the 2nd house from the Sun and Venus is in the 11th which are good but this is not sufficient to nullify the bad effects of hard malefics Mars and Saturn over the Sun. So, there will be less than normal rainfall during the stay of Sun in Scorpio sign which is from 17th of November to 17th of December.
Some low to medium intensity earthquakes may also come during the middle of November to December in the Himalayan region as the affliction to the Scorpio sign suggest. This will affect the Delhi-NCR also as the Scorpio sign specifically signify this area.
The interior parts of Tamil Nadu may face shortage of water for irrigation for the paddy crops. The period from the mid of November to December months is considered to be very crucial for North East monsoon season. But this year we may not get sufficient rainfall during this period due to the bad effects of Mars and Saturn over the Sun. In North India the production of wheat, barely, peas and mustard will get affected due to the above mention malefic influences over the Sun.
Chart 4. Sun enters into Sagittarius
16 December 2023, 15:58 hours at Delhi
At the time of Sun’s entry into Sagittarius Mars will be behind Sun. The aspect of Jupiter over the Sun is a combination of rainfall as per Bhavishya Phala Bhaskar. In the last fortnight of December, the state of Tamil Nadu will get some beneficial rainfall. However, this rainfall will not be much to meet the deficient rainfall during the months of October and November. So overall, the North East monsoon season (October to December) may end up giving around 90% of rainfall. The state of Tamil Nadu and Kerala will be affected the most as the zodiacal sign Virgo signifying this region will get affected by the bad influence of Ketu in transit. The situation in Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka will be little better though.